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Employment Report Due At 1330BST/0830ET

CANADA
  • Alongside the key US Employment data on Friday, Canada will also report jobs data for May. The data follows the Bank of Canada decision on Wednesday to cut rates by 25bps to 4.75% and a full recap of that decision can be found here.
  • Within the BOC’s statement, the governing council noted that “labour market data show businesses continue to hire, although employment has been growing at a slower pace than the working-age population. Wage pressures remain but look to be moderating gradually.”
  • May’s net change in employment is expected to come in at +22.5k, down from a prior +90.4k increase, and as usual, the split between full time and part time adjustments will be monitored closely. Correspondingly, the unemployment rate is seen ticking up to 6.2%. With one factor the BOC remains particularly focused on being wage growth, attention will be on the hourly wage rate for permanent employees, which is expected to fall one tenth to 4.7% Y/y.
  • USDCAD is trading within a range. Key support has been defined at 1.3590, May 16 low. The post BOC high of 137.41 is the immediate area of topside interest. For bulls, a stronger resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.3846, the Apr 16 high.
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