End of Day Oil Summary: Crude Removes Some Gains

Crude markets are losing some of the earlier gains, but WTI front month remains at the highest level since 15 November, as most sell-side forecasts Saudi Arabia will extend its output cut into 2024, while some assume OPEC may deepen cuts due to the recent bearish trend in prices. Additional upside is provided from the renewed risk due to Middle East tensions.

• Brent JAN 24 up 2% at 82.23$/bbl
• WTI DEC 23 up 2% at 77.39$/bbl
• WTI-Brent unchanged at -4.51$/bbl
• Middle East tensions are still an upside risk to prices with shipping in focus after Iran-backed Houthi Rebels seized a Japanese chartered vessel in the Red Sea on Sunday according to Bloomberg. Iran denied its role in the seizure of the ship.
• Venezuela will not accept "ultimatums from anyone" according to Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez after the US warned it will assess eased sanctions relief if fair election progress is not made.
• The pullback in oil prices during this time of the year and a stabilization of prices in December has been noticed in the past five-years, Amrita Sen, Co-founder of Energy Aspects said in a CNBC interview.
• Saudi Arabia is likely to extend its voluntarily 1mbpd output cut into 2024, Ellen Wald, Senior fellow at the Atlantic Council said in a Bloomberg interview.
• During the next OPEC+ meeting on 26 November, the producer group will need to decide on whether to cut output proactively to get ahead of the situation or to wait whether current price levels are proving to be a floor over the next two months, Eurasia Group said in a note.
• The extension of Saudi Arabia and Russia voluntary oil production cuts into next year “feels more real” but any additional cuts would have to involve more countries than just Saudi Arabia according to Kieran Gallagher, managing director of Vitol Bahrain.
• Brent needs to average $88/bbl in Q4 rising to $90/bbl for the balance of the quarter with a Q4 deficit of 300kb/d according to Deutsche Bank.
• Crude floating storage stationery for at least seven days rose 24% w/w to 87.98mbbls as of November 17 according to Vortexa with the Middle East up to the highest since August.
• China's crude imports from Russia - including supplies via pipelines and seaborne shipments - totalled 8.54mn tons in October, 5.6% lower m/m, Customs data showed.