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Ending A Wild Week With Oil Stronger, Gold Softer

COMMODITIES
  • Crude oil is ending the day down more than -1.5%, which sees WTI up +1% on the week (22% ytd) but Brent up +5.3% (26.5%), driving the largest spread between the two since Apr-2020.
  • The week has included some huge swings, including a >8% intraday gain on the day of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which was then fully reversed as it became clear the US wasn’t going to sanction Russian oil and sanctions more generally less severe than could have been the case.
  • The US rig count continued to rise in response to high prices, up 5 to 650 this week and 11% higher ytd.
  • WTI is -0.8% at $92.03, through first support of $94.95 (Feb 22 high) and briefly testing $90.64 (Feb 23 low) before retracing, whilst resistance remains just north of $100.
  • Brent is -0.6% at $98.51 and also cleared first support of $97.56 (Feb 24 low) before retracing.
  • Gold has suffered for the second day running, down -0.7% at $1891.1, for -0.3% lower on the week. Like oil, it surged through the initial invasion because seeing an intraday decline of almost 5% or $96.
  • It was the largest intraday move since $115 in Nov’20 when gold ended -5% on the day as Pfizer announced effectiveness of its vaccine.
  • It now sits above key short-term support of $1878.4 (Feb 24 low).
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