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Energy Intelligence See Peak Oil Demand at 105mb/d in 2029

OIL

Peak demand is forecast at around 105mb/d in 2029 according to Energy Intelligence although with growth narrowing to around 100k-200kb/d annually from 2027. Gasoline demand is expected to peak before diesel.

  • Many analysts believe peak oil should happen around the end of this decade, amid an accelerating energy transition although OPEC and Exxon Mobil see growth through at least 2045.
  • Most agree that a protracted plateau in demand is coming soon with zero or limited growth.
  • The OPEC data-driven forecast sees demand growth slowing beyond 2028 but rising through at least 2045 to 116mb/d amid economic growth from a more prosperous, rising population.
  • The Exxon forecast is supported by oil for industrial processes and heavy-duty transport like shipping, long-haul trucking and aviation.
  • The lower Energy Intelligence forecast is driven by intangible factors like changes in consumer behaviour as well as a faster electrification of transportation and underpinned by big markets like the US, Europe and especially China before 2030.
Energy BulletsCommodities
Energy BulletsCommodities

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