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Energy Price Rally Not Expected Unless Demand Increases: BofA


Bank of America have reiterated crude oil target prices for 2024 of 90$/bbl for Brent and 85$/bbl for WTI.

  • Prices for crude oil and natural gas are not expected to see a sustained rally into 2024 without gains in demand according to a note on 15 Aug.
  • “Demand conditions need to improve materially for a sustained move above $100/bbl in Brent or above $20/MMBtu in JKM/TTF,” analysts said.
  • “Cyclical energy demand trends remain very soft, particularly for European gas and anything industrial globally.”
  • Natural gas, crude and oil products have risen since the start of June. A particularly “fast and furious” move in diesel was prompted by refinery production cuts partially due to hot weather leaving inventories at low levels. Med runs were down by 420k b/d y/y in 2Q.
  • Low inventories are “exacerbating tightness in petroleum product markets across the board as we head into winter.”

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