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Equity Bounce Prompts Renewed Greenback Weakness

LATAM FX
  • Higher than expected US data initially provided a boost to the US dollar and weakness for major equity indices. However, the most recent bounce for stocks, potentially playing into the soft-landing thesis in the US has seen the greenback reverse lower and resume the weakening bias from earlier in the session, providing a renewed bid for LatAm currencies.
  • While higher yields in the US are having little effect on the dollar on Tuesday, they are keeping the Japanese yen on the backfoot in G10, with cross/JPY hovering close to the day’s best levels.
  • USDBRL has shrugged off some early strength and has narrowed the gap with the most notable support level across the LatAm majors at 4.9883, the Sep 29 low.
  • For rates, swaps curves have shifted higher in sympathy with moves in the US, however, there has been noticeable weakness in Colombia, with 5-year IBR rising 28bps following Monday’s closure for a local holiday.
  • In Colombia, BanRep will publish the results of its economists’ survey on inflation expectations and monetary policy. This week key economic activity data is released on Wednesday and trade balance/imports crossing on Friday.
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