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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
TURKEY
Political betting markets continue to show incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as the overwhelming favourite going into the 28 May second round run-off against opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Data from Smarkets shows Erdoğan with a 94.3% implied probability of winning to Kılıçdaroğlu's 3.6%.
- The endorsement of Erdoğan by the distant third-placed candidate in the first round with 5.1% of the vote - nationalist anti-immigration candidate Sinan Oğan - provides another boost to in incumbent's campaign. Oğan cited the parliamentary majority won by Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its allies the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) as a key factor behind the endorsement.
- This is also seen as a key factor driving the prospect of an Erdoğan win, with many swing voters viewed as likely opting for the incumbent with a parliamentary majority assured to avoid a divided gov't.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Turkish Presidential Election, %
Source: Smarkets. Erdogan-Gold, Kilicdaroglu-Red
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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