ESTONIA-Support For Kallas' Party Slumps, Allies In Crisis (2/2)

Amid the slump in support for E200, party chair Lauri Hussar announced his resignation on 6 Nov, ostensibly to focus on his position as Riigikogu speaker. This sets up a contest between Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna and filmmaker Arko Okk. The two stand as stark opposites.

• Tsahkna has served in gov'ts under both Reform and Centre Party prime ministers. Okk on the other hand has never served in gov't or parliament, and in the last election in which he stood managed to garner 23 votes. Most notably, though, he has called for E200 to withdraw from the gov't, a move that if implemented could bring around snap elections. E200 immediately distanced itself from Okk's comments, and the prospect of him winning the vote at the 19 Nov general assembly seems slim.
• Nevertheless, in the event of E200 withdrawing from gov't, or a no confidence vote proving successful in ousting the three-term PM, polls would point towards a battle between Isamaa and the right-wing nationalist Conservative People's Party (EKRE) for first place.
• Estonia has proved one of the most vocal supporters of hard line sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, but a change in gov't could alter this somewhat. The agrarian Centre Party (Kesk) is the receptacle for the votes of much of Estonia's Russian-speaking minority. Their inclusion in any gov't could see the vociferousness of Tallinn's calls for tougher measures towards Moscow softened somewhat.