EU Gas Lower With Warm Weather Forecast for NW Europe

European gas extends the decline since the surge to a peak in August with another 4% fall so far this week.

• TTF NOV 22 down -2.7% at 149.6€/MWh
• Energy infrastructure security is in sharp focus following the Nord Stream gas pipeline sabotage. The leak in the Druzbha oil pipeline, the hoax bomb threat at Ormen Lange yesterday and concern for drone sightings over facilities are adding to the nervous market.
• Supplies are currently stable with gas transit through Ukraine unchanged at 42.4mcm/d and Norwegian flows today nominated at 323.9mcm/d.
• Current weather forecasts are showing above normal temperatures for the next 10 days before drifting back to normal at month end. Cold weather throughout the upcoming winter remains a big threat to Europe with reliance on LNG supplies and storage to cover for the missing Russian pipeline flows.
• European storage is now up to 91.64% full according to the latest AGSI data for Oct 12. The countries with the largest storage volumes are Germany at 95.14% full, Italy at 93.43%, France at 98.35%, and Netherlands at 92.75%.