EU LNG Supply Stable as Asia Premium Decreases

LNG supplies into Europe remain steady despite the current cold weather as North Asia spot prices are falling with weak Asian demand and high terminal stocks.

• The Feb JKM-TTF spread is down to 1.7$/mmbtu from around 6$/mmbtu last week. The US netback to Europe for March is estimated slightly higher at 15.51$/mmbtu but the netback to Asia is still higher at 16.47$/mmbtu. The netbacks for the summer months have switched back to just encourage flows to Europe.
• LNG supplies into Europe have average around 400mcm/d so far this year.
• Around 31 LNG further shipments are expected to arrive into NW European LNG terminals this month and 47 have already arrived in Jan so far.
  • TTF FEB 23 down -1.2% at 60.95€/MWh
  • NBP FEB 23 down -0.5% at 153.18p/th
  • JKM Feb 23 down -7.1% at 21.11$/mmbtu
  • JKM-TTF Feb 23 down -1.1$/mmbtu at 1.73$/mmbtu
  • US Natgas FEB 23 up 0.8% at 3.34$/mmbtu