EU, NATO Eyes On Sep Election As Pro-Russia Candidate Gains In Polls

Opinion polling ahead of the 30 September general election shows that left-wing populist Smer-SD, led by former PM Robert Fico, on course for a plurality of seats in the 150-member National Council. While Smer-SD would have to form a coalition with other parties in order to govern, the Russophile rhetoric used by Fico during the campaign will come as a major concern to Ukraine, the EU, and NATO.

• Foreign Policy reports that Fico, who governed between 2006-10 and 2012-18, has "...criticized the ratification of Slovakia’s Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States, calling it “treason” and a “betrayal of national interests.” [...] stressed that if he returns to power, his first action will be to stop sending Ukraine weapons[...]...said on the campaign trail that “Ukrainian fascists” started the war in 2014..."
• Falling short of a majority could see Smer-SD go into gov't with even more overtly Russophile parties on the far-right such as Republic (REP) or the Slovak National Party (SNS). Should this gov't be formed it could see Slovakia become a major obstacle to united EU action on Russia in the same vein as Viktor Orban's Hungary.
• Post-election, the best hope for Brussels for a pro-Ukrainian, pro-EU gov't could come in a multiparty alliance involving former PM Peter Pellegrini's centre-left Hlas and the liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS). However, given the 5% electoral threshold for political parties, rising to 7% for election alliances, it is unclear how many potential allies these moderate parties would have in parliament.

Source: Median, Ipsos, AKO, NMS, Focus, SANEP, Polis Slovakia, MNI