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EUR/HUF Continues to Trade with Downward Bias and Pierces Bear Trigger

HUNGARY

EUR/HUF (-0.25%) has continued to trade with a downward bias today and has pierced 368.05, the May 16 low and the bear trigger. A sustained break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and open 366.41, the Mar 30 2022 low.

  • Despite recovering from intraday lows, yields on 10Y bonds have continued traveling in a downward direction since last week’s saving tax announcement. Notably, the HU-GE 10y spread broke below 500bps for the first time since Feb'22 and took out YTD lows in the process.
  • The domestic data docket is busy this week, with retail sales having crossed this morning at a lower-than-expected -12.6% y/y (Est: -10.6%). Industrial production data is on the docket tomorrow (Est: -1.1% y/y) ahead of CPI data on Thursday (Est: 22.3%).

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