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EUR Implied Rates A Little Lower

STIR

Euribor futures are +0.5 to +4.5 ticks through the blues, with core FI holding on to gains seen yesterday afternoon/evening.

  • ECB implied rates have softened as a result, with 23bps of cuts priced through the June meeting and 70bps of easing priced through the remainder of ’24.
  • After hours, ECB Chief Economist Lane delivered a lecture on the “The analytics of the monetary policy tightening cycle”. In line with the ECB’s April meeting guidance, he did not pre-commit to a rate decision at any of the upcoming meetings.
  • Elsewhere, ECB GC dove Stournaras suggested that three rate cuts in 2024 was now “the more likely scenario” following recent growth and inflation outcomes. He previously pointed to the need for four rate cuts before year end.
  • Today’s regional calendar is relatively light, with most focus on the US labour market release at 1330BST/1430CET.


    • Meeting Date ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp)
    Jun-243.680-23.1
    Jul-243.602-30.9
    Sep-243.424-48.6
    Oct-243.351-56.0
    Dec-243.212-69.8
    HomepageBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market News

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