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EUR/NOK Clears Solid 100-dma Support as Rate Pressures Build

NOK
  • EUR/NOK has made a protracted move lower today, extending the move triggered Monday on the back of the higher-than-expected June inflation release. The cross is now well through the 100-dma (which provided strong support in mid-June) for the first time since Q3 last year. Horizontal support at 11.4199 marks the next downside level - but is in very close proximity to today's low.
  • Core CPI clearing forecast yesterday helped bolster sellside views of a greater risk of 50bps at the August meeting, with most analysts acknowledging the possibility of a higher path trajectory ahead - although July CPI (Aug10) is still due ahead of the next meeting (Aug17). Firmer oil prices also lending a hand to oil-tied FX, although NOK/CAD is also posting a solid multi-day rally, suggesting domestic factors are more at play.
  • Elevated Norges Bank pricing further reflected in FRA pressures Tuesday; the Sep/Dec 3m FRA sits at new cycle highs of 4.85, building on the 10bps daily rise posted into the Monday close. Impacts also felt further out the curve, with Mar24/Jun24 FRA marking peak rate expectations and touching 4.91.
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