EUR/USD within range of YTD low ahead of......>

FOREX: EUR/USD within range of YTD low ahead of ECB

-EUR/USD overnight vols hit fresh one-year highs Thursday ahead of what's

expected to be an eventful ECB meeting. The consensus is for the ECB to tweak

forward guidance and indicate further stimulus is forthcoming. They could do

this by strongly suggesting a resumption of asset purchases or a further cut to

the deposit rate, but any mention of rate tiering would also be carefully eyed.

EUR/USD hit lows of $1.1122 in early Europe, well within range of the

year-to-date lows at $1.1107.

-NZD extended recent weakness, with NZD bears now eyeing 100-dma support at

$0.6674. Antipodean FX has traded poorly following a speech from RBA governor

Lowe, who said he's ready to press Australian monetary policy lower as inflation

is not expected to hit target for quite some time. AUD/USD sits on 50-dma

support at $0.6959 ahead of the NY crossover.

-Attention turns to, of course, the ECB rate decision, but the Turkish central

bank also announce rates at 1200BST/0700ET. Policy action is expected, but there

are a wide range of estimates, with some looking for cuts as deep as 800bps.