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EURCZK at Multi-Year Highs Amid Broader Pressure on EM FX

CEE FX
The sustained move higher in both the greenback and US yields has continued to pressure CE3 FX, and indeed the wider EM FX basket, as weakness across the major equity benchmarks provides an additional headwind. EURHUF and EURPLN are 0.75% and 0.55% firmer on the day, respectively. While EURCZK is a more moderate 0.2% in the green, the cross pierced the 25.00 handle for the first time since May 2022 earlier in the session.
  • For EURHUF, initial resistance is marked at 386.69, the Jan 31 high. A clearance of 390.49 further out is required to reinstate the recent bullish theme. On the downside, a clear break of key support at 382.39, the 50-day EMA, would open 378.59, the Jan 16 low.
  • Initial firm resistance for EURPLN has been defined at 4.3646, the 50-day EMA. On the downside, a continuation lower would open 4.2935, the Dec 13 low and key support. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started in September last year, opening 4.2371, the Feb 14 2020 low.
  • A sustained move in EURCZK through the 25.000 figure would allow bulls to set their sights on the 38.2% retracement of the Mar 19, 2020 - Apr 14, 2023 sell-off at 25.043.
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