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EURHUF Pierces 380.00 Handle Ahead of NBH Decision

HUF
EURHUF has pierced 380.00 in recent trade – a handle which capped gains last week. The forint has been unable to benefit from single currency strength and the uptick across major benchmark equity indices, though has recorded gains of ~0.1% against the dollar. While the local currency is performing broadly in-line with the Czech koruna, losses against the Polish zloty stand at 0.85% today, placing the PLNHUF cross within close proximity to the mid-October highs at 87.28.
  • Despite today’s gains, the latest recovery in EURHUF appears to be a correction with price having recently breached support at 378.24, the Aug 30 low. The clear break of this level strengthens the bearish theme and opens 373.98, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 12 - Aug 3 bull leg.
  • Focus will turn to the NBH rate decision tomorrow where the central bank are widely expected to deliver another 75bp cut to the base rate following guidance from officials that the pace of easing be maintained from the October decision. See the full preview, with a summary of sell-side analyst views, here.
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