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EURHUF Returns to Flat Following Weak German Manufacturing PMI

HUF
EURHUF has returned to flat, as generally weaker-than-expected PMI prints across the Eurozone weigh on the single currency, and therefore the euro proxies. Note that National Economy Minister Nagy attributed the soft Q4-2023 GDP data to the recession in Germany. Similarly, NBH Deputy Governor Virag said in an interview to index.hu this morning that the consequences of a decline in the German economy can clearly be seen in Hungarian industry.
  • The German manufacturing PMI slipped from 45.5 in January to 42.3 in February – with little in the details of the data to redeem it from the downward surprise for the headline, as new orders, manufacturing confidence, domestic demand and export orders all deteriorated.
  • Performance of the forint is still in-line with that of its CE3 peers, however, with moves in EURPLN and EURCZK also retracing earlier dips. For EURHUF, the short-term outlook remains bullish with key support at 384.69 – the 50-day EMA – still some way off. Upside focus falls on 390.49, the Jan 30 high.
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