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EURJPY Surges Toward Bull Trigger as YCC Seen Intact Next Week

FOREX
  • JPY is offered solidly across G10 headed into the NY crossover, with concurrent BoJ sources reports raising expectations that the BoJ's yield curve control programme will be unchanged at next Friday's decision. Both Bloomberg and Reuters cited sources in reporting that the board were leaning toward no change in approach, countering recent building speculation that a policy switch would be imminent.
  • USD/JPY rallied solidly on the report, rising well through the recent highs to trade at the best levels since July 10th. JPY implied vols are well bid, with the one-week contract now capturing the BoJ decision and crossing 16 points to trade at the best levels since March.
  • EUR/JPY was similarly dragged higher, bringing prices back into range of the bull trigger at the Jun 28 high of 158.00, a break above which could signal the beginning of an upside reversal in the cross.
  • NOK is the firmest performer across G10, gaining alongside the slightly firmer oil price. EUR/NOK remains just above yesterday's lows of 11.1273, but a break below would open the 200-dma at 11.0739 - last broken in September last year.
  • The Canadian retail sales release is the sole data due Friday, with markets expecting sales to have risen 0.5% on the month, and 0.2% ex-autos. There are no central bank speakers of note, with the Fed remaining inside their pre-decision media blackout period.
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