Europe to Need 5% More LNG than Summer 2023 before Next Winter

Europe will need to attract 5% more LNG than during summer 2023 to reach the same level of storage heading into the next winter heating season according to Bloomberg citing Morgan Stanley.

• European storage is expected to be 51% full by the end of winter, down from an previous forecast of 53%.
• Net European gas storage withdrawals remain below normal to maintain overall stores up at the previous five year range highs at 66.22% full on Feb 13 according to GIE data and in line with levels seen this time last year. The seasonal five year average is 50.76%.
• Net storage withdrawals have been around 41% below normal in the week to Feb 13 with withdrawals of 3,798GWh/d compared to the previous five year average of about 5,729GWh/d.
• The weak near term fundamentals continue to weigh on the front of the curve with some support for summer with focus on restocking supplies over the summer. Mar24-Sum24 spread is today at -0.5€/MWh.
• European gas demand could improve later this year with risk from weather and increased global LNG competition according to Independent Commodity Intelligence Services.
  • TTF MAR 24 up 2.7% at 25.54€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 24 up 2.4% at 26.15€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 2.1% at 29.9€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 up 1.6% at 27.8€/MWh