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European Fixed Income Higher, Despite Equity Rally

BOND SUMMARY
  • European fixed income has headed higher this morning despite equities rallying and Treasuries moving lower on the day.
  • There is no obvious catalyst for the move with some pointing to comments from ECB's Lane that the euro is a concern - and suggesting that means the ECB will ease policy further (unlikely in our view). And others pointing to equities going bid as they pre-position ahead of the US labour market report on Friday.
  • There is also some big supply over the next couple of days in Europe with the German Green bond launching today via syndication (books are over EUR30bln and EUR6bln issue size is expected). German Bobl auction will see EUR4bln sold while books are over EUR12.5bln for a reopening of 10-year GGB (expected size EUR3.0-4.5bln). Tomorrow sees Spain and France come to the market for another EUR13.25-16.75bln. Offsetting this supply are redemptions of EUR24.55bln of BTPs and EUR16.0bln of Bunds along with EUR10.5bln of coupon payments.
  • It will be a busy day for the UK with PMQs returning after the summer recess and five MPC appearances. Governor Bailey, Ramsden and Vlieghe will all testify before the Treasury Select Committee, kicking off at 14:00BST. While this event continues Broadbent will give the keynote speech at the CEBRA Annual meeting at 15:30BST followed by Bank Chief Economist Haldane chairing a panel beginning at 1630BST.
  • US factory orders, the final print of GDP and the Fed's Mester, Daly and the Beige Book will be the highlights across the pond.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-1+ today at 139-11+ with 10y UST yields up 1.3bp at 0.683% and 2y yields up 0.3bp at 0.136%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.68 today at 176.40 with 10y Bund yields down -3.1bp at -0.452% and Schatz yields down -1.3bp at -0.695%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.52 today at 135.56 with 10y yields down -2.9bp at 0.264% and 2y yields down -0.2bp at -0.108%.
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