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European LNG Imports Decline to Lowest Since October

LNG

LNG import flows to Europe have fallen to 360mcm/d from record levels of up to 529mcm/d on 16 Dec as warm weather has reduced heating demand in Europe and driven spreads in favour of flows to Asia.

  • European gas prices have declined about 50% from a peak on 8 Dec while JKM prices have decline by only 15% during the same period. The JKM-TTF spread is near the highest since Jan 2021 at over 5.5.$/mmbtu.
  • The US LNG netback to Europe for Feb is estimated at 18.78$/mmbtu compared to the US netback to Asia at 23.12$/mmbtu according to Bloomberg. The netback calculations show spreads in favour of flows to Europe for March and into the summer months.
  • Approximately 19 cargoes are expected to arrive into NW European terminals over the coming week. December saw a record number of 87 cargoes into NW Europe after the cold start to the month.
    • TTF FEB 23 down -2.2% at 75.3€/MWh
    • NBP FEB 23 down -1.1% at 184p/th
    • JKM Feb 23 down -1.8% at 28.98$/mmbtu
    • JKM-TTF Feb 23 up 3.7$/mmbtu at 5.73$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas FEB 23 down -9% at 4.07$/mmbtu


Source: MNI / Bloomberg

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