Examining the weightings......>

GLOBAL MARKET/OPINION: Examining the weightings for the manufacturing PMIs ahead

of today's releases, it looks as though there may be scope for positive

surprises:

New orders (30%): Hard to see how this could not have improved in June vs May.

Output (25%): Again it is hard to see this not moving higher.

Employment (20%): Probably unchanged to lower - it is unlikely there has been

much hiring in the manufacturing sector.

Suppliers' Delivery Times (15%): Delivery times are likely to have shortened as

manufacturing has opened back up - this will be seen as a negative as it is

normally associated with falling demand.

Stocks of Purchases (10%): Less obvious direction here.

- So new orders and output add up to 55% of the index and are likely to improve

while employment and suppliers delivery times add up to 35% of the index and are

likely to fall.

- Consensus for Germany is only 42.5 while France/ Eurozone/ UK all have

consensus of 45-46. Only the US has a consensus above 50 (50.8). (1/2)