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Existing Home Sales Fall Again But Tightness Supports Prices

US DATA
  • Existing home sales were on balance as expected in September, falling a slightly smaller -1.5% M/M after a larger than first thought -0.8% M/M in Aug.
  • Annualized sales of 4.71M (cons 4.70M) are the lowest since 2012 when looking outside the Apr-May’20 depths of the pandemic as mortgage rates approaching 7% bite. The NAR sees the pace potentially slowing to 4.5M.
  • However, with months of supply plateauing at 3.2 vs pre-pandemic levels closer to 4, the market remains tight and continues to help support prices with the median price growth holding at 8.4% Y/Y.
  • Indeed, "The current lack of supply underscores the vast contrast with the previous major market downturn from 2008 to 2010, when inventory levels were four times higher than they are today.”

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