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Expectations ahead of the "Growth Plan" on Friday

GILTS

We have seen much less coverage of the potential increases to the gilt remit due this Friday than we would normally have expected this close to a Fiscal Statement (or "Growth Plan" as this one is being labelled). Expectations seem to range from an increase of around GBP45bln for this fiscal year, to more than double that. Putting a price on the energy support scheme is particularly difficult as it is a function of natgas prices.

The estimates below are for the current fiscal year:

  • Barclays: Borrowing to be an additional GBP90-100bln (PSNBex not issuance)
  • BNP: GBP60.5bln increase in gilt issuance, GBP5bln increase in T-bills.
  • Deutsche Bank: GBP60.9bln increase in gilt issuance, GBP5bln increase in T-bills.
  • Nomura: GBP82bln increase in issuance (across gilts and T-bills)
  • NatWest Markets: GBP45.6bln increase in gilt issuance, bill issuance unchanged
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