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Expeditious Policy and Normal Fed Funds Rates

US TSYS

Rates trade firmer after the bell, Bonds off midday highs to near midmorning levels while yield curves hold flatter profiles as latest round of Fed speak anchors the front end.

  • “I expect the FOMC will move expeditiously in bringing the federal funds rate back to more normal levels this year,” New York Fed President John Williams said Tuesday in prepared remarks to the Bundesbank. “Our monetary policy actions will cool the demand side of the equation.”
  • Cleveland Fed Mester said 50bp rate increase base case "makes sense" over the next couple meetings. Richmond Fed Barkin said US doesn't "need a recession to contain inflation", adds Fed can reassess once rates are "into range of neutral".
  • Treasury futures gradually receded off highs after $45B 3Y note auction (91282CEQ0) trades through: 2.809% high yield vs. 2.812% WI; 2.59x bid-to-cover vs. 2.48x last month.
  • Focus turns to Wed' CPI data for April: MoM (1.2%, 0.2%; YoY (8.5%, 8.1%); CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (0.3%, 0.4%); YoY (6.5%, 6.0%). Next leg Treasury supply: $36B 10Y note auction.
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