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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US TSYS
- Treasuries extend their twist steepening late in the session, with the 2Y pushing new session highs (equating to 6.5bp richer), whilst the long-end is firmly cheaper with 10Y +6bps (never quite clearing 5%) and 30Y +10bps.
- 2s10s sits 12.5bps higher on the day, +10bps since Powell’s remarks and especially the Q&A, at -18bps for highs since Sep’22, whilst 2s30s has increased +16.5bps.
- TYZ3 trades at 105-17+ (-11), having seen sizeable volatility post-Powell touching 105-30+ with the text before a low of 105-10+, the latter new recent lows. Support is seen at 105-01+ (2.0% 10-dma envelope). Very strong cumulative volumes of 2.15M.
- The front end has been strongly bid based on sanguine opening to remarks, noting that "Incoming data over recent months show ongoing progress toward both of our dual mandate goals—maximum employment and stable prices" and the significant tightening in financial conditions (which at the margin could mean less need to hike).
- The long-end did however see significant cheapening impetus on there being evidence that policy is “not too tight right now”.
- Fed Funds implied rates show just 1bp of tightening priced for Nov, building to a cumulative +10bp to a terminal 5.43% effective rate in January (-2.5bp since Powell). It’s followed by 70bp of cuts to end-2024 from 68bp pre-Powell, still near lows for recent months.
- Still to come, Biden’s address on foreign policy with potentially $100B pledged after the close at 2000ET, plus Fedspeak from Bostic, Harker and Logan. Tomorrow meanwhile sees a near-empty US docket after a few stacked days.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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