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Eyes $1.1920 Upside Trigger

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Recovery off Monday's low of $1.1800 stalled at $1.1894 during Tuesday's Europe morning then eased to $1.1842 in early NY.
  • Risk appetite picked up afresh as market reacted to Janet Yellen's approach for the US Tsy.Sec. job, positive vaccine reports and increased hopes for US fiscal stimulus, which allowed rate to push up to $1.1896 ahead of the close.
  • Risk outlook carried across into Asia, took rate on to a high of $1.1910 but lost this enthusiasm ahead of the European open, easing off to Tuesday's NY high of $1.1896.
  • However, underlying tone retains a buoyant feel but seen needing a clear of next technical 'barrier' at $1.1920/26 to boost upside potential.
  • Value today is for Monday month-end which may provide some US corporate USD demand, though a good portion may have been covered earlier in the week. Preliminary outlook for Monday's month-end fixes has strong signals for USD selling.
  • Option expiry calendar showing increased interest in $1.2000 EUR calls into next week.
  • Support $1.1896, $1.1865, $1.1840. Resistance $1.1910, $1.1920/30, $1.1950, $1.1966.
  • Pre US holiday data dump includes Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods, GDP, PCE/Pers.Inc. at 1330GMT, Michigan Sentiment, New Home Sales at 1500GMT.
  • MNI Techs: EUR/USD closing in on 1.1920, Nov 9 high. Monday's price action reinforces the importance of this bull trigger at 1.1920. A breach would expose the 1.2000 handle once again ahead of 1.2011, this year's high print on Sep 1. Key support remains 1.1746, Nov 11 low. A break would instead reverse the trend direction and expose 1.1711. Interim support lies at 1.1800.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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