MNI BRIEF: IMF Cuts Japan 2024 GDP View To +0.7% Vs. Apr 0.9%

CANADA JUNE CPI +2.7% YOY VS FORECAST +2.8%, PRIOR +2.9%

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, July 16

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY674 Bln Via OMO Tue; Rates Unchanged

MNI China Press Digest July 16: LPR, Q2 Data, Property

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1328 Tue; -1.79% Y/Y

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Greece, UK, Germany Due Wednesday

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: Portugal, EU Auction on Wednesday

MNI: US MAY BUSINESS INVENTORIES +0.5%; SALES +0.0%

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

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US TSYS
Rates finished weaker Monday, lower half of the range after making an attempt to reverse losses on late chatter concerning Russia/Ukraine tensions.
  • While markets reacted positively to early Russia official Lavrov comments over keeping negotiations open re: Russia/Ukraine tensions, late headlines purporting satellite images of Russia troop movements closer to Ukraine border and headline that Ukraine Pres Zelensky told Russia invasion would proceed Wed (apparently tied to mistranslated comments made in a speech hours prior) spurred risk-off moves.
  • Markets remain skittish over Russia/Ukraine headlines -- more apt to spur a tail-event move than Fed speak after StL Fed Pres Bullard reprised his hawkish stance on CNBC Monday morning after green-lighting 50bps March lift-off and suggesting potential for off-meeting move.
  • Tsy futures extending session lows as StL Fed Bullard reiterates stance on higher/faster rate hikes to address growing inflation, would like to see 100bp in hikes by July, Fed not moving fast enough. Bullard Wants balance sheet run-off in second quarter. On supply chain drag, Bullard said a feed-back loop may last into 2023.
  • Active early trade, bearish option hedging as underlying rates react to StL Fed Bullard reiterating hardline stance on rising inflation and cooling geopol headlines re: Russia/Ukraine. Call skew firmed briefly on second half bounce in underlying.
  • Late: 2-Yr yield is up 7.9bps at 1.5785%, 5-Yr is up 5.2bps at 1.9063%, 10-Yr is up 4.9bps at 1.9858%, and 30-Yr is up 5.2bps at 2.2905%.
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