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- In the past few months, China real M1 money growth, which has historically acted as a strong leading liquidity indicator for risky assets (especially EM equities), has fallen significantly from over 14% in January to -2.9% in May.
- The drop in real money growth has come from both falling M1 and the significant rise in inflation (we use PPI inflation for China as it shows better relationship with 10y yield than CPI).
- This chart shows that China real M1 has led EM cyclical stocks (Financials) by 6 to 9 months in the past 15 years.
- Are EM financials set for a consolidation this summer?