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Fed 2H23 Rates Drift Higher Pre NAHB, Further Fedspeak

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates are off post-retail sale highs for near-term meetings but drift higher further out.
  • Cumulative moves from current 5.08%: +3bp Jun (unch), -4bp Jul (+0.5bp), -19bp Sep (+1bp), -40bp Nov (+2.5bp), -64bp Dec (+3.5bp) and -87bps Jan (+4.5bp).
  • Mester earlier: More hawkish Q&A (data shows US rates not at sufficiently restrictive level, need to see more evidence US inflation is moving down) after prepared remarks noted slow long-run economic growth and that mon pol needs to factor this in.
  • Ahead, NAHB housing index and Barr’s testimony on supervision and regulation at the House at 1000ET followed by NY Fed’s Williams (1215ET) who last week broadly stuck to FOMC guidance rather than more dovish comments.
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