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Fed 2H23 Rates Ease, Fedspeak Deluge Ahead Of Blackout

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed for upcoming meetings but have unwound about half of yesterday’s climb for 2H23 overnight. 22bp hike for May (unch) and cumulative 29.5bp for Jun (+0.5bp), -5.5bps for Nov from current levels (-3bp) and 23bp of cuts from current to 4.60% for Dec (-4bp).
  • In case missed yesterday, Williams suggested the U.S. economy remains overheated and policymakers have more tightening to do, even as tougher credit conditions may dampen spending.
  • Six lots of Fedspeak today, four of which are current voters and only Bostic without text, with two full days left before the blackout. Gov Waller (voter) on financial innovation, Mester (’24) on policy outlook, Gov Bowman (voter) welcoming remarks, Logan (’23), Bostic (’24) on economic conditions and Harker (’23) on economic outlook.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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