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Fed Chair Powell Has Last Word On Likely Nov Taper Annc Ahead Blackout

US TSYS
Back to the flattener. Tsys traded mildly weaker early Friday, gradually rebounding ahead mixed Markit PMIs: Mfg softer (59.2 vs. 60.5est and 60.7 in Sep) while Services picked up (58.2 vs. 55.2 est and 54.9 in Sep).
  • Tsy futures that had pared gains/traded weaker in 2s-10s after Fed chair started speaking at a SARB event, staying on script despite a surge in market rate hike pricing.
  • Powell said Fed is "on track" to begin and complete the taper by mid-'22; inflation pressures as transitory, though likely to last longer than had previously been expected, with supply constraints lasting well into next year. Equities pared gains after chairman Powell said inflation "well above target."
  • Focus on Powell quickly ebbed as Tsys surged on back of EU Brexit headlines -- unattributed and unconfirmed on wires and social media stating the EU will consider terminating the Brexit trade agreement (TCA) with the UK if the rift between Brussels and Westminster deepens. Tsy futures surged to session highs but have scaled back support slightly as well, Yield curve broadly flatter in near end, while 5s30s are off 18 month low tapped Monday:
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.7bps at 0.4615%, 5-Yr is down 3.3bps at 1.2072%, 10-Yr is down 4.9bps at 1.6518%, and 30-Yr is down 5.9bps at 2.0883%.
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