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Fed Ends POMO: A Challenging Year For US Equities

EQUITIES
  • With Fed ending its POMO operations following nearly 5tr USD of increase in assets in its balance since the start of the pandemic, momentum on equities may pause in the near to medium term.
  • We previously saw that the liquidity injections from central banks to finance the high cost of lockdown policies have been a major driver of global risky assets in the past two years.
  • This chart shows that volatility in the stock market tends to rise after the Fed exits market.
  • For instance, US equities remain unchanged for 18 months after the Fed ended QE in October 2014 and experienced several 5% to 10% drawdown ‘episodes during that period.
  • Could the SP500 reach new all-time highs in 2022 without Fed ‘help’?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI.

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