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Fed Funds Hike Expectations Looking For Drivers

STIR FUTURES
  • Hikes implied by Fed Funds futures sit little changed from late yesterday levels, i.e. locking in a 50bp hike next week with a cumulative 106bps for June and 237bps to year-end.
  • The 106bps for June is close to where it’s averaged since Mester pushed back against a 75bp hike last week, keeping within +/-2bps ever since.
  • We’re still not sure what caused the particularly large lurch higher in OIS-derived June pricing overnight, but it is now back in line with the 106bps from FF futures (a miss print looks most likely).


Fed Funds and OIS implied cumulative Fed hikes for June meetingSource: Bloomberg

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