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China Repo Rates Diverge On Thursday

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Fed Funds Terminal Now Eyed Above 3.6% Before 55bps of Cuts

  • A significant payrolls beat sees Fed Funds implied hikes sitting at 68bps for the Sept FOMC and 123bps to year-end to 3.54% (+14bps on the release).
  • It ekes out a peak of 3.63% in Mar’23 (+16bps on the release) before 56bps of cuts to 3.07% in Dec’23.
  • That terminal rate is still within post US CPI highs of circa 3.7% but moves closer to recent Fedspeak looking for high 3s/low 4s (most recently Mester a little above 4%). Fedspeak has also pushed back on the cuts priced but no material change there in pricing post-payrolls.

Fed Funds implied rate at specific meetingsSource: Bloomberg

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