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Fed Hike Pricing Ignores Latest ECB Sources

STIR FUTURES
  • Implied Fed hikes sit little changed, indifferent to a spike higher in ECB pricing on latest Reuters/BBG sources that it will be discussing the possibility of a 50bp hike on Thu (+6bp to 35bp priced).
  • As it is, FOMC-dated Fed Funds imply hikes of 80bps for Jul 27 (+1bp), 144bps for Sep (+2bp) and 194.5bps for Dec (+1bp).
  • A peak in Fed Funds is seen broadly in Dec/Feb meetings at circa 3.54% with just over 50bps of cuts through 2023.

Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futuresSource: Bloomberg

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