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Fed Hikes Grind Higher Beyond May

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes are unchanged for May at 48.5bps, whilst June unwinds some of the CPI drop at 94bps and Dec recovers more slowly to sit at 212bps.
  • Recapping yesterday’s Fedspeak: Brainard gave a tweaked potential timeline for QT: "We'll decide as soon as May to start reducing the size of the balance sheet in which case those reductions could come as soon as June".
  • Followed by Bullard (’22 voter) ‘fantasy’ to think modest hikes will tame CPI, Harker (’23) “we need to take action [on inflation] but be careful at the same time” and Barkin (‘24) best path is to move rapidly to neutral rate range, raising rates beyond neutral likely part of process.

Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed FundsSource: Bloomberg


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