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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - Week Ahead 9-15 Dec
Fed Hikes Grind Higher Beyond May
- Fed Funds implied hikes are unchanged for May at 48.5bps, whilst June unwinds some of the CPI drop at 94bps and Dec recovers more slowly to sit at 212bps.
- Recapping yesterday’s Fedspeak: Brainard gave a tweaked potential timeline for QT: "We'll decide as soon as May to start reducing the size of the balance sheet in which case those reductions could come as soon as June".
- Followed by Bullard (’22 voter) ‘fantasy’ to think modest hikes will tame CPI, Harker (’23) “we need to take action [on inflation] but be careful at the same time” and Barkin (‘24) best path is to move rapidly to neutral rate range, raising rates beyond neutral likely part of process.
Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed FundsSource: Bloomberg
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.