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Fed Hikes Keep To Post-Minutes Dip

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implies hikes have gyrated overnight but currently sit close to levels seen after the FOMC minutes.
  • There is 62bps priced for the Sept 21 FOMC with one more CPI and payrolls still to come. It’s followed with a cumulative 120bps to 3.53% at year-end and 136bps to a terminal 3.69% in Mar’23 having unwound the hit from last week’s CPI miss, before 40bps of cuts to end’23.
  • George (’22 voter) and Kashkari (’23) speak at 1320ET and 1345ET. George, a 50bp dissenter in June but not July, last spoke on Jul 11 when the terminal was seen just below 3.60% with large swings between then, whilst Kashkari recently pushed back on rate cuts after last week’s CPI miss.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied rateSource: Bloomberg


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  • Fed Funds implies hikes have gyrated overnight but currently sit close to levels seen after the FOMC minutes.
  • There is 62bps priced for the Sept 21 FOMC with one more CPI and payrolls still to come. It’s followed with a cumulative 120bps to 3.53% at year-end and 136bps to a terminal 3.69% in Mar’23 having unwound the hit from last week’s CPI miss, before 40bps of cuts to end’23.
  • George (’22 voter) and Kashkari (’23) speak at 1320ET and 1345ET. George, a 50bp dissenter in June but not July, last spoke on Jul 11 when the terminal was seen just below 3.60% with large swings between then, whilst Kashkari recently pushed back on rate cuts after last week’s CPI miss.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied rateSource: Bloomberg