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Fed Implied Rates Continue Drift Higher

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  • Fed Funds implied rates have drifted higher today, reversing an overnight dip to poke above yesterday’s high for the Dec’24 to leave it close to early Wed before rallying both into and after the CPI/retail sales data.
  • Coming after the day’s move but helping support levels, Fed Gov. Bowman (voter) released unscheduled remarks in which she noted the fact that average core CPI inflation was 4.3% in the first four month of the year (well above average inflation in 2H24) suggests inflation will remain elevated for some time.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1.5bp Jun, 7bp Jul, 20bp Sep, 28bp Nov and 43bp Dec.
  • Ahead, Kugler and Powell give commencement speeches over the weekend, Powell in a pre-recording having tested for Covid-19, in appearances that are unlikely to touch on mon pol.
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  • Fed Funds implied rates have drifted higher today, reversing an overnight dip to poke above yesterday’s high for the Dec’24 to leave it close to early Wed before rallying both into and after the CPI/retail sales data.
  • Coming after the day’s move but helping support levels, Fed Gov. Bowman (voter) released unscheduled remarks in which she noted the fact that average core CPI inflation was 4.3% in the first four month of the year (well above average inflation in 2H24) suggests inflation will remain elevated for some time.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1.5bp Jun, 7bp Jul, 20bp Sep, 28bp Nov and 43bp Dec.
  • Ahead, Kugler and Powell give commencement speeches over the weekend, Powell in a pre-recording having tested for Covid-19, in appearances that are unlikely to touch on mon pol.