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Fed Implied Rates Edge Lower For Late 2024, Waller In Focus

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  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged for meetings out to September and beyond that nudge lower to chip away at yesterday’s increase on a day of limited macro drivers.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp Jun, 6.5bp Jul, 19bp Sep, 27bp Nov and 42bp Dec.
  • Today’s Fedspeak schedule looks heavy but in reality sole monetary policy focus should be on Governor Waller’s prepared text at 0900ET before Q&A. Waller last meaningfully spoke Mar 27 when he said rate cuts are likely appropriate this year but not yet, and that the economy is giving us no reason to implement big cuts.
  • Barr yesterday laid out some options the Fed is looking at including forcing larger banks to maintain a certain amount at the Fed’s discount window or limits on assets that banks can hold as their liquidity buffers.
  • Bostic meanwhile speaks for the fourth and fifth times in a week with six appearances.
  • 0900ET – Barkin (’24) welcome remarks at Rural America conf (text tbd)
  • 0900ET – Waller (voter) on US economy and mon pol (text + Q&A)
  • 0905ET – Williams (voter) opening remarks at governance conf (no text or Q&A)
  • 0910ET – Bostic (’24) brief welcome remarks at 2nd day of Atl Fed conf
  • 1145ET – VC Supervision Barr (voter) in fireside chat on liquidity crisis lessons (no text)
  • 1900ET – Bostic (’24) moderates panel with Collins (’25 voter) & Mester (’24 retiring June)

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  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged for meetings out to September and beyond that nudge lower to chip away at yesterday’s increase on a day of limited macro drivers.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp Jun, 6.5bp Jul, 19bp Sep, 27bp Nov and 42bp Dec.
  • Today’s Fedspeak schedule looks heavy but in reality sole monetary policy focus should be on Governor Waller’s prepared text at 0900ET before Q&A. Waller last meaningfully spoke Mar 27 when he said rate cuts are likely appropriate this year but not yet, and that the economy is giving us no reason to implement big cuts.
  • Barr yesterday laid out some options the Fed is looking at including forcing larger banks to maintain a certain amount at the Fed’s discount window or limits on assets that banks can hold as their liquidity buffers.
  • Bostic meanwhile speaks for the fourth and fifth times in a week with six appearances.
  • 0900ET – Barkin (’24) welcome remarks at Rural America conf (text tbd)
  • 0900ET – Waller (voter) on US economy and mon pol (text + Q&A)
  • 0905ET – Williams (voter) opening remarks at governance conf (no text or Q&A)
  • 0910ET – Bostic (’24) brief welcome remarks at 2nd day of Atl Fed conf
  • 1145ET – VC Supervision Barr (voter) in fireside chat on liquidity crisis lessons (no text)
  • 1900ET – Bostic (’24) moderates panel with Collins (’25 voter) & Mester (’24 retiring June)