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Fed Implied Rates Slide On PCE Data

STIR
  • FOMC-dated OIS is unchanged for the July meeting (+21bp) but sees increasingly large declines further out.
  • The terminal remains in Nov (cumulative +33bp of hikes vs +36bp prior).
  • Cuts from terminal to Jun’24 build from -50bp to -54bps with the Jun’24 rate -6bps on the data.
  • The data showed a combination of softer supercore PCE inflation and softer real spending including downward revisions.


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