Free Trial

Fed Implied Rates Treading Water

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are unchanged through 2023 and beyond that only marginally lower from Friday’s close, with little overnight impetus from European PMIs ahead of the US versions later on. It leaves a 25bp hike on Wednesday seen as locked in but then only about 1/3 odds of the additional hike that the median FOMC participant pencilled in for the June dots.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.08% effective: +24bp for Wed, +28bp for Sep, +33bp for 5.41% terminal
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 5bp to Dec’23 (unch), 63.5bp to Jun’24 (from 62.5bp) and 139bp to Dec’24 (from 137.5bp).
  • Preliminary July PMIs for the US provide a potential driver in a session otherwise reliant on headlines/flow.

Source: Bloomberg

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.