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STIR
It wasn’t only OIS pricing re: the odds of a 50bp hike at the March FOMC meeting that took a hit on Monday (with weekend developments surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict and related sanctions on Russia applying pressure). FOMC dated OIS now prices ~5.5x 25bp (~138bp) rate hikes during calendar ‘22, back from over 170bp of tightening that was briefly priced in during mid-February. There has been a modest bounce in FOMC dated OIS tightening pricing during early Asia dealing, but we are talking a matter of a handful of bp at each meeting, nowhere near unwinding Monday’s shift lower.
Fig.1: Tightening Priced Into Dec ’22 FOMC Dated OIS (%)
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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