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Fed Path Edges Higher Pre-NFP After Sizeable Gains Yesterday

    • Fed Funds implied hikes have edged to 72bp for Nov and a cumulative 124bp to an implied effective 4.32% for Dec’22 (+1bp), consistent with the median dot of 4.4%. Followed by a terminal 4.61% in Mar’23 (+2.5bp) and then 4.34% in Dec’23 (+1bp).
  • Gov. Waller and Mester continued to indicate full steam ahead for the hiking cycle, with Waller if anything more hawkish than in the past (Bloomberg headlines below).
  • NY Fed Williams, Kashkari (’23) and Bostic (’24) ahead, all of whom have this spoken this week. No prepared text, potential reaction to NFP but with an eye on CPI next week.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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