Free Trial

Fed Path Looks Through PBOC Easing/Weak Data

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes so far sit almost unchanged from late Fri levels despite PBOC easing and weak China data, if anything firming for immediate meetings.
  • There is 64bp priced for Sep 21 on the way to a cumulative 120bp to 3.52% by year-end and 133bp to a peak of 3.66% at Mar’23. Inversion was trimmed to circa 45bp of cuts to end’23.
  • Despite last week’s CPI miss, the payrolls beat still sets the tone when it comes to the terminal, with Fedspeak of potential higher for longer helping lift 2H23 rate expectations further – see chart.
  • No Fedspeak scheduled today.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.