Free Trial

Fed Rate Path Consolidates CPI Lift, Awaiting FOMC

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates are little changed overnight, consolidating yesterday’s lift on the CPI report which in turn reversed a sizeable rally leading into the report.
  • Ahead of today’s FOMC decision and updated SEP, it sees circa 50/50 probability of a first cut in May, fully prices that first cut in May (26bp cumulative) and builds to 110bp of cuts to end-2024.
  • The Dec’24 implied rate of 4.23% has lifted 12bps since just before Friday’s payrolls report but remains 85bps before the median 2024 dot from the September SEP.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.