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MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, March 28

MNI BRIEF: Japan's Trimmed Mean Slows To 2.7% - BOJ

MNI BRIEF: Impact of AT1 On Japanese Banks Is Limited - Suzuki

MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +2.9% V YR AGO MO

MNI: ITALY MAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE 105.1

MNI: ITALY MAR BUSINESS CONFIDENCE 110.2

MNI BRIEF: FDIC To Conduct Review Of Deposit Insurance

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Barr: Will Use All Tools To Keep Banks Safe

(RPT)MNI INTERVIEW:Ex-FDIC Chair Downplays Bank Contagion Risk

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Fed Rate Path Eases Back With Powell Eyed

STIR FUTURES
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  • Fed Funds implied hikes have trimmed some of yesterday’s continued climb although a largely parallel shift from the terminal onwards keeps 2H23 cuts near recent lows of 33bps (50bps pre-payrolls).
  • 25.5bp for Mar (unch), cumulative 43.5bp for May (-1.5bp), 53bp to terminal 5.11% in Jun/Jul (-3/-4.5bp) before 4.78% Dec (-5bp).
  • Chair Powell remarks expected to start 1240ET. Follows limited Fedspeak post-FOMC and payrolls. So far Bostic (’24) late yesterday still saw two more hikes as base case but the jobs data raised the possibility of a higher terminal, and Daly (’24) Fri saw the Dec dots as a good indicator of where headed but is prepared to do more if needed.


FOMC_dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg

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  • Fed Funds implied hikes have trimmed some of yesterday’s continued climb although a largely parallel shift from the terminal onwards keeps 2H23 cuts near recent lows of 33bps (50bps pre-payrolls).
  • 25.5bp for Mar (unch), cumulative 43.5bp for May (-1.5bp), 53bp to terminal 5.11% in Jun/Jul (-3/-4.5bp) before 4.78% Dec (-5bp).
  • Chair Powell remarks expected to start 1240ET. Follows limited Fedspeak post-FOMC and payrolls. So far Bostic (’24) late yesterday still saw two more hikes as base case but the jobs data raised the possibility of a higher terminal, and Daly (’24) Fri saw the Dec dots as a good indicator of where headed but is prepared to do more if needed.


FOMC_dated Fed Funds futures implied ratesSource: Bloomberg