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Fed Rate Path Holds Push Higher Since Thanksgiving

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have for the most part drifted up to 1.5bp lower from Friday to unwind most of its nudge higher in post-Thanksgiving thinned trade.
  • However, compare with pre-Thanksgiving levels and rates late into 2024 sit 4.5bp higher than Wednesday’s close.
  • Cumulative tightening is seen peaking with +3.5bp at the January FOMC, followed by 88bp of cuts to end-2024. This peak to end-2024 cut pricing last closed lower on Nov 13 ahead of US CPI.
  • The first cut from current levels is seen with the June FOMC (26bp cumulative).

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