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Fed Rate Path Nears Post-Logan Highs With R* Discussions Watched

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed-dated OIS implied rates have quickly stepped higher in recent trade at/nearer to yesterday’s highs seen after Logan suggested a higher bar to a June pause than first thought.
  • Cumulative changes from 5.08% effective: +9.5bp Jun (+1.5bp on the day), +7.5bp Jul (+1bp), -3bp Sep (+1bp), -21.5bp Nov (+0.5bp), -43bp Dec (+0.5bp) and -65bp Jan (+0.5bp).
  • Musings at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference likely headline the session. NY Fed’s Williams delivers the keynote address with text + Q&A at 0845ET before Chair Powell is in a panel with Bernanke 1100ET coming after a session on the consequences of declining natural rates. The Laubach-Williams r* connection sees markets eagerly await any discussion on the matter.


OIS implied rate for June FOMCSource: Bloomberg

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